The Latest Betting Odds for the Next Disney CEO (Exclusive)

The Bob Iger-successor search is well underway — again — and while Hollywood has its own parlor game re: the race for Disney’s top job, we’re taking our chips to Antigua.

To some degree, this is all a crapshoot — remember when Tom Staggs was a shoo-in? — so let’s take a minute from parsing the daily industry news cycle for clues about who’s ahead in the succession race and talk to the oddsmakers. The Hollywood Reporter asked BetOnline.ag (the “ag” is for Antigua, where the online sports book is registered — less regulation in paradise) for a decidedly outside Los Angeles perspective on who will next sit in the TV and film industry’s iron throne.

Though gamblers think differently, BetOnline.ag handicapped the race through the usual research.

“The internal candidates are easily accessed and after that it’s really about research on who has created hits that go beyond the obvious mainstream,” Dave Mason, BetOnline’s brand manager, tells THR. “This space is now so competitive that we need to deep dive into current trends while keep [Disney’s] brand focus front of house.”

But again, it’s a bet, and Mason knows his odds have been off before. So have industry analysts, whom Mason believes he can out-handicap.

“The reason I believe a bookmakers are a much better barometer than ‘experts’ is simple: If we’re wrong we lose money, ‘experts’ don’t,” Mason says.

Well, Dave, investors do.

Per BetOnline, the frontrunner for the next Disney CEO has not changed, even if her political capital has. Dana Walden (2/1), co-chair of Disney Entertainment, is one obvious choice and has seemingly been positioned as a shoo-in. But to some observers, Kamala Harris’ loss in 2024 could be Walden’s loss in 2026, the date by which Disney is expected to name its new chief executive officer. Walden and Harris are longtime friends, and in a Trump presidency, a known Harris pal in the Cinderella’s Castle corner office could be a problem in the Oval. Silly, we know, but have you been monitoring the first 100 days? Disney has enough headaches with Republican lawmakers at the state level — who needs beef with the feds?

Josh D’Amaro (7/2), the Disney Parks chairman, is just ahead of Jimmy Pitaro (4/1), the chairman of ESPN. It makes sense they’d be close, even if it didn’t quite work out with Venu (for Pitaro) nor the last time Iger named a parks guy, Bob Chapek, as his successor …

Just behind Pitaro is Alan Bergman, that other Disney Entertainment co-chair. Bergman is basically the film version of Walden, though he comes with a much longer Disney tenure (Walden came over with most of Fox in 2019) and CFO experience. At 9/2 from the oddsmaker, Bergman does not feel like a bad bet. (Not betting advice.)

You’ll notice that all the oddsmaker’s favorites are internal candidates. That was always the case, though it’s been trending hard in that direction lately. BetOnline previously had it -150 that the new occupant for Iger’s seat would come from inside Disney, though that number has since shifted all the way to -500. (For the gambling novices: It was initially bet $150 to profit $100 and now, with so much action on “internal” rather than “external,” you would have to bet $500 to profit $100. Thing is, the max wager on these props is $250, so the most you could profit from the new line is $50.)

“The Disney brand is incredibly sacred both internally and externally, so the temptation to stay in-house is probably strong but, equally, the streaming space is so competitive now that they cannot rest on their laurels at all,” Mason says. “Interesting market, this one.”

Here is a direct link to place bets.

BetOnline’s first outside-Disney candidate is Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos, who recently moved from 12/1 to 8/1. It is clear why a streaming-first company would want Sarandos, but the former Netflix chief content officer has regularly denied interest in the post. Sarandos recently quipped that he’d rather run Saturday Night Live than Disney.

The argument for Sarandos to be interested goes sort of like this: Ted has already proven everything that can be proven as co-CEO of Netflix — and that “co-CEO” thing could bother him. Sarandos once shared the title with Reed Hastings and now shares it with Greg Peters. At least Hastings founded the company; Peters, a tech longtime tech guy at the streamer, is the new exec splitting the top spot with Sarandos.

On some level, Disney has to be attractive to Sarandos. It has the IP that Netflix has (thus far) been unsuccessful in building — tons of it. And Disney has real parks, not mall space. Disney’s future is dependent upon beating Netflix at its own streaming game: Why not be the CEO who does that and not the co-CEO who thwarts it?

Brian Robbins, one of Paramount Global’s “Office of the CEO” trio (the film studio one), is trending in the other direction, per the oddsmakers. Robbins and Sarandos essentially switched places: Robbins was 8/1 and is now 12/1.

Robbins will likely exit Paramount if and when the Skydance deal closes, and therefore may be #OpentoWork in the near future. But why bring in a Robbins when you already have a Bergman? Is a one-of-three co-CEO any more qualified to CEO this Disney ship than a one-of-two chairman? This is one the industry analysts and oddsmakers can agree on.

Andrew Wilson, the CEO of Electronic Arts, is also 12/1 — the first tie on the board. While Disney has some gaming ambitions, it does not currently have this much. At BetOnline’s odds, the value may not be here. (Still not gambling advice.)

We have to address David Zaslav, who the book has at 16/1. Zas is semi-interesting in that he’s a large enough TV and film personality to fit the bill. Plus, wanna know best way to get rid of $40 billion in (gross) debt? Leave it behind. Problems include Zaslav’s recent perception in some corners of not being creator-friendly — something Zas has contested through PR and pricey film deals — a positioning that certainly didn’t do Chapek any favors. Plus, all Walt Disney Co. shareholders need is one look at that WBD stock price and it’ll likely be a hard pass.

James Gorman, the former Morgan Stanley chairman and the very guy leading the successor search, is at 50/1 — imagine going through all of this just to pick yourself? It’s happened before, but Gorman is under enough pressure as it is just trying to make someone else Disney CEO. And like Gorman, Walden, D’Amaro, Pitaro and Bergman serve on Disney’s board, so it’s hard to see this bet paying out.

Gorman isn’t even the real long shot here; join us as we venture into desperate-gambler territory. We’re not saying you’re a degenerate if you bet on Elon Musk at 150/1, but we are saying you’re probably not a “sharp.” The other option to 150x your money is Tim Burton, who started his career as a Disney animator and went on to direct 10 films for the Mouse House. But you’d have to be a real Dumbo (2019) to take that bet.

Mason explains to decision to go there.

“Odds-wise, [Disney CEO] is a dream job in some ways, but also a poison chalice in others,” he said, referencing Disney’s recent Snow White bomb. “So we needed to add some who are proper risk-takers into the market. [Disney] being a listed company adds increased pressure as well, so there needs to be a balance between money, quality and content.”

Here are the full odds BetOnline gave to THR of the Disney CEO succession race:

Dana Walden 2/1
Josh D’Amaro 7/2 (+350)
Jimmy Pitaro 4/1
Alan Bergman 9/2 (+450)
Ted Sarandos 8/1
Brian Robbins 12/1
Andrew Wilson 12/1
Mark Woodbury 16/1
David Zaslav 16/1
Jim Morris 16/1
Sean Clarke 16/1
Michael Ouweleen 25/1
Francisco Ramos 33/1
John Lasseter 33/1
Genndy Tartakovsky 40/1
James Gorman 50/1
Elon Musk 150/1
Tim Burton 150/1