Survey: More WA business owners now expect a recession

Spring has sprung but many employers in Washington state see an economic winter quickly approaching. 

Of the 444 respondents to the Association of Washington Business’ quarterly survey of employers, 44% say they expect the state to enter a recession in the next year. That’s up from 17% in the prior survey. 

They cite perennial concerns over taxation and regulation as among the biggest concerns. Three-quarters of respondents also anticipate that tariffs will have a negative impact on their business and have already raised the cost of business inputs. Nearly half, or 45%, say the tariffs have caused supply chain disruptions.  

The dismal mood is causing business leaders to consider a variety of adaptations, from delaying planned capital expenditures (35%) and absorbing higher costs (32%), to implementing a hiring freeze (19%) and reducing or eliminating planned salary increases (12%). A smaller number are making plans to lay off staff (10%), and 5% have already implemented layoffs. 

Despite the challenges facing them, most employers rated the current Washington economy as moderate or strong, with about a quarter saying it’s weak or very weak, roughly the same description as a year ago.

Similarly, most survey respondents said their business is flat (42%) or growing (24%) with fewer saying it’s beginning to experience a downturn (23%) or struggling (11%), also similar to responses in the April 2024 survey.

The full report can be found here.